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Inquiet's avatar

Spot on. Good article. My only caution is that the mining-to-refining gap for REE is enormous compared with coal or oil and gas. REE processing is a spectacularly messy business best suited to wilderness locations in countries with deeply relaxed environmental rules. It is much more invasive than building an oil refinery or a coking plant. I could use many adjectives to describe EU environmental regulation (a field I've worked in for 25+ years) but "relaxed" is not one of them. I think that is part of the cold logic behind the US desire to "own" Greenland rather than exercise exclusive extraction rights on terms dictated by Greenlanders (which I believe would borrow heavily from the canon of EU environmental law). What you can get away with in West Texas (and certainly under this administration) you could not get away with in an arctic wilderness shaped by EU rules (or something similar to them).

Tim Marshall's avatar

Agreed, but US determined to try and close gap with China. US has tighter rules than China, but obvs lots of territory and will also try to get refining set up in friendly countries.

Faye Heffernan's avatar

Brilliant comprehensive article, distilling so much ‘chaos’ so cleanly 😅 your article connects closely to a short piece I’ve just written from a UK resilience angle, specifically how deep integration with allied systems can create structural exposure to risks we don’t fully control. If it’s of interest, please do take a look 🌷

Tim Marshall's avatar

Possible, depends where he draws his lines. He might (if he knew of such things) say UK is in both hemispheres as some argue, but if he took a strict interpretation of the prime merdian line I think Oxfordshire lies just inside the western hemisphere. But I don't think you need to prep for a visit from Delta Force.

Rose Jones's avatar

Thank you for writing an article that clearly states events rather than one that hysterically screams about the man. Can't say I am looking forward to the next decade; I said the same thing after the bloody Brexit vote... Who knew 🫣

IvyB's avatar

Tim, do you think Trump is suffering from cognitive decline/dementia (many videos on the subject at The Daily Beast). Yes he’s always been unhinged but is this now a medical issue?

Tim Marshall's avatar

Well, he's of an age, so while its possible, its also possible he's just tired. The worst episode was after the Maduro event, but he'd been up all night, few hours sleep, then 16.00 presser. So, juries out.

Anthony Peters's avatar

Tim, I live in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds. Am I part of Trump’s Western hemisphere?

Tim Marshall's avatar

Possible, depends where he draws his lines. He might (if he knew of such things) say UK is in both hemispheres as some argue, but if he took a strict interpretation of the prime merdian line I think Oxfordshire lies just inside the western hemisphere. But I don't think you need to prep for a visit from Delta Force.

Anthony Peters's avatar

I thought as much but concluded I’d be much happier when armed with your reassurance.

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Jan 14
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Tim Marshall's avatar

Thanks. Agreed, end pars make that point but i could have perhaps emphasized it more.

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Jan 13
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Tim Marshall's avatar

Thanks. In the article I argue they are doing both 'not just getting supplies but denying others'.