Trump's offer to Iran: "Surrender"

The alternative offer? "Surrender"

The American president’s offer is one Iran can refuse – at potential great cost, although the scale of that cost is unknown. Tehran’s other problem is that the president’s offer is one it can accept – at great potential cost. However, despite being overwhelmingly outgunned, it has options.

If the White House continues with its previous maximalist demands, then an Iranian agreement would amount to capitulation. It must destroy all of its nuclear programme, move its enriched uranium out of the country and allow intrusive inspection for verification. In addition, it must reduce its long-range ballistic missile capabilities and end support for Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen

USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN.

To persuade Tehran that this would be a good idea President Trump has sent the Abraham Lincoln Carrier strike force to the Gulf. As well as stealth fighters, the ‘Armada’ includes 3 Littoral Combat Ships. They can be used to counter the threat of Iran trying to mine the Strait of Hormuz to block oil and gas tankers passing through its narrow shipping lanes. Earlier this week the Americans flew a squadron of F-15 jets from Lakenheath in the UK to an airbase in Jordan. There are bases closer to Iran in friendly countries, but most, nervous about Tehran’s retaliation, have made clear they will not allow their territory to be used to attack Iran.

The strike group and jets, along with other ‘assets’ give Trump a range of options if he decides to pull the trigger. It looks as if the Pentagon is about ready. The US CENTCOM Commander Adm Brad Cooper has been in Israel this week which suggests the Israelis will be sharing intelligence on targets and discussing what role Israel might play.

The US could just make symbolic strikes against high-profile targets such as the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) in Tehran from where much of the brutal repression of anti-government demonstrations earlier this month were orchestrated. There are many such targets, for example the depots holding the equipment and motorcycles the Basij militia use to kill protestors. This would be a face-saving operation if Trump decides that the risks of a sustained campaign are too great.

The above seems unlikely. If the missiles and planes are launched it is more likely they would be used for several days at least and, as well as hitting the Guards, would again target Iran’s nuclear facilities as happened in last June’s ‘12 Day War’. They would be accompanied by taking out Iran’s air defences and missile launch sites. Cyber-attacks would be carried out and possibly even an attempt to capture or kill the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei although that would be far more difficult than the operation to get President Madura.

Trump is reluctant to put in ground troops especially as the distances from Tehran to American ships are far greater than those from Caracas to the Caribbean. Nevertheless, the US has flown an MC-130J Commando II plane from Britain to Azerbaijan. The plane is used to get US special forces in and out of hostile territory. However, the Azerbaijan government has said it will not allow its territory to be used.

The riskiest option is for a sustained bombing campaign lasting weeks and aimed at collapsing the regime. It’s possible the US does not yet have the fire power in theatre to carry this out, however, it could signal intent by moving another carrier group towards the region. The problem with this is that the duration of the operation would be as unknown as what would follow it.

Among the scenarios are those of igniting conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq and throwing petrol onto the situation in Yemen. The biggest fear is that collapse of authority in Iran, a huge country of 90 million people, could trigger a civil war with groups such as the Kurds and Balochis trying to carve out autonomous regions.

So - Tehran gets a vote. It could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz although this would guarantee a sustained campaign to reopen it. It can fire missiles at American ships, American bases across the Middle East, and at oil terminals. It also has hundreds of small boats it could try and use in suicide ‘swarming’ missions to attack the Abraham strike force vessels.

This week a senior IRGC commander, Brig Gen Hossein Nejat, said his country’s armed forces had “much better readiness” now than at the start of last year’s war. This seems as unlikely as his other claim that “the enemy is also in a very bad situation and cannot do any mischief”. Iran’s air defences were smashed last June along with its missile launchers. Tehran has spent the last 7 months rebuilding both, but it’s doubtful they are at the pre-June capacity.

Nevertheless, if attacked Iran will almost certainly fire back – especially at Israel. This explains the arrival of the USS Delbert D Black in the southern Israeli port of Eilat. It is a guided missile destroyer and would be used as part of Israel’s air defences if fighting breaks out.

We are still in the stage of threats and perception management. The Americans are attempting to persuade the Iranians of the inevitability that if they do not capitulate the regime will be blown apart. The Iranians are trying to deter full blown American action with hints that they are ready to climb the ‘escalation ladder’.

After last year’s strikes the White House signalled that it was done (for the time being). Iran responded with its own signal. It fired a few missiles at the US base in Qatar. It’s thought Tehran gave the Pentagon advance warning, and there were no causalities. ‘Honour’ satisfied - the Iranians called it a day.

However, this year the circumstances are different. Last June the regime was not facing an existential threat. If Trump goes for the sustained campaign option, the Ayatollah’s know their regime might crack. This month they displayed a willingness to murder thousands of their own citizens to survive. If they are again faced with their house collapsing, they might surrender but would know that the weakness this would show internally and externally could be a fatal blow. More likely they would try and take everyone down with them.